Does effort really mean as much as it should online?

No.
That's easy, "no".
Sorry to be so abrupt, but the answer to my title is a flat-out "no".
I'm serious, there's not even a way to say "yes" anymore.
No, definitely no, absolutely no, big fat no, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D76ia5P9Shc.
...Okay, maybe I was exaggerating slightly in terms of it, but that doesn't change that effort is turning more and more worthless towards gaining one's own popularity.
Let me create an example situation. Let's pretend that we have two YouTube channels with the exact same video coming out, the only difference being what creator is producing it and possibly being seen in it. Heck, make the product the exact same result for both channels, both of excellent work put into it and quality. The only difference so far is that Channel A has about 40 subscribers, whereas Channel B has around 300.
What will happen when the videos are posted? Channel A might get lucky and gain about 10 more subscribers after about a month, but Channel B will get a whole lot more right off the bat. Repeat the experiment, the same thing will happen over and over and over again. Channel A will be stuck with a small amount and flatline, whereas Channel B will gain tons and tons more subscribers.
See how little the effort of Channel A contributed to its own popularity? No? Then let's try this again. This time, insert a complete lack of effort into Channel B's video, the quality showing that, and start from the same point as before. The results will be the same. Heck, some people might watch Channel B's video and hate it, but it will still be noticed and the subscriber count will still grow exponentially.
What am I getting to, you ask? If you're popular, you're gonna get more popular, for better or worse. Even infamy counts as popularity. If you're not, and you don't have someone else helping you become popular, tough luck. Someone else is gonna have to pull the strings to put you in the spotlight in the first place. Once that happens, effort might actually matter to see how fast your popularity will rise.